FACT: Data-Driven Predictions Favor Laxalt

In 2014, Nevada blogger Jon Ralston – a diehard hater of Adam Laxalt – predicted Laxalt would lose his race for attorney general. Ralston was wrong, just as his predictions were wrong that year for the races for secretary of state, the 4th congressional district, and control of the NV State Assembly.

Ralston has once again let his hatred for Laxalt cloud his judgement, and he will once again be proven wrong when Laxalt defeats Joe Biden’s rubber stamp in the Senate, Catherine Cortez Masto. As many people have noted, Ralston’s feelings fly in the face of the actual data. Ralston’s prediction, however, is certainly in line with the ad dollars Masto gave Ralston’s pay-to-play blog this campaign cycle.

Here’s a look at the current NV Senate predictions from data-driven analysts who aren’t suffering from a political derangement syndrome:

  • FiveThirtyEight: Laxalt wins 57 times out of 100

  • Decision Desk HQ: Laxalt has a 55% probability of winning

  • CNalysis: Tilts Republican

  • Real Clear Politics: Republican Pick Up

As the Washington Post’s Henry Olsen writes today, it’s “easy to predict that Republican Adam Laxalt will comfortably win Nevada. Biden is consistently less popular there than he is nationwide. The state’s Republican Senate nominees won an average of 45 percent in 2016 and 2018, and Laxalt will likely improve upon that by a few points in this much more pro-GOP environment. That’s more than enough for him to win.” Laxalt’s lead in the Real Clear Politics polling average is 2.7%.

Still, The Cook Political Report, Politico, CNN, Fox News, and Inside Elections all rate the race as a toss-up. If you want to win, you have to get out and go vote!


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