Analysis: Despite Dem-Heavy Samples, Laxalt Still Leads

In the last two weeks, four polls have found Republican Adam Laxalt is leading Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto by at least four points in the Nevada U.S. Senate race.

Of these four polls, three sampled more Democrats than Republicans.

All indications point to Laxalt winning independent voters handily and being more competitive among Latino voters than any other Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Nevada in modern history.

This is why, even with polls sampling more Democrats than Republicans, Laxalt has a significant lead in this race:

Insider Advantage 550 LVs – Laxalt lead: 6 points

· Conducted Nov 4

· D+5 sample: Dem 36% / GOP 31% / Ind 34%

Susquehanna 500 LVs – Laxalt lead: 6 points

· Conducted Oct 24 – 27

· R+1 sample: GOP 36% / Dem 35% / Ind 29%

Emerson 2000 VLVs – Laxalt lead: 5 points

· Conducted Oct 26 – 29

· D+1 sample: Dem 34% / GOP 33% / Ind 33%

Trafalgar 1100 LVs – Laxalt lead: 4 points

· Conducted Oct 21 – 24

· D+2 sample: Dem 37% / GOP 35% / Ind 28%

The bottom line: with the early vote numbers looking anemic for Democrats, Cortez Masto’s operation is going to get increasingly desperate to collect more votes.



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